Nutrien (TSE:NTR) Stock is Getting Hammered – Should You Buy The Dip?
Nutrien Hits 52-Week Low: Should You Buy the Pullback?
Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE: NTR) is a global leader in providing crop inputs and services. It operates through four key segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Retail division distributes essential agricultural inputs, including nutrients, protection products, seeds, and other merchandise.
The Potash segment specializes in granular and standard potash, while the Nitrogen segment offers ammonia, urea, environmentally smart nitrogen, and other nitrogen-based solutions. Lastly, the Phosphate segment provides a variety of fertilizers, both solid and liquid, along with industrial and feed products.
The company’s shares have dropped approximately 18% year-to-date, reaching a 52-week low earlier this week. In this analysis, we will evaluate Nutrien’s latest earnings, consider Wall Street analysts’ insights, make a fair value assessment and review market sentiment to determine if the current pullback presents a buying opportunity.
Earnings and More
On August 7, Nutrien reported second-quarter earnings, with an EPS of $2.34, exceeding Street expectations of $2.19. However, revenue was lower, at $10.16 billion compared to the forecasted $10.82 billion.
We view Nutrien’s results as strong, reporting an adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion for the first half of 2024, driven by higher margins in crop inputs, strong potash demand, and reduced operating costs. The company raised its global potash demand forecast, though phosphate volumes were slightly reduced due to equipment issues, while nitrogen guidance remained stable.
Furthermore, retail EBITDA was revised down by 8% due to instability in the Brazilian market and delayed U.S. planting.
Nutrien also announced a CFO transition, with Mark Thompson set to take over later in the year.
Our Analysis
The agricultural sector faces pressure from declining crop prices, which are expected to reduce farmers’ income and shift their focus toward cost-cutting rather than maximizing yield. This environment will likely limit fertilizer price growth, constraining Nutrien’s earnings potential. As a result, investor sentiment and valuation multiples are expected to remain under pressure until there is a turnaround in the market cycle.
Wall Street’s View
Goldman Sachs recently downgraded Nutrien from a “Buy” to a “Neutral” rating, lowering the price target from $69 to $53. The downgrade primarily stems from concerns about Nutrien’s Retail segment, particularly the Nutrien Financial unit, which could face higher bad debt expenses and increased loss reserves in the coming year.
Despite these concerns, Goldman Sachs continues to recognize the strength of Nutrien’s wholesale fertilizer operations, especially its leading potash assets, which are valued below mid-cycle market conditions. This balance of strengths and weaknesses led Goldman to adopt a more cautious outlook while maintaining a neutral stance on the stock.
On the other hand, BMO Capital reduced its price target for Nutrien from $80 to $75 but kept its “Outperform” rating. BMO acknowledges that while Nutrien’s Retail segment may take longer to reach its performance targets, the firm’s long-term outlook for the company remains optimistic.
BMO slightly lowered its target multiple for Nutrien, seeing the company as a “show-me story” that requires demonstrated progress, especially with the recent leadership transitions potentially serving as a catalyst for positive change.
Analysts’ Price Target
Wall Street analysts have an average “Buy” rating on Nutrien, with price targets ranging from $43 to $75. The average target of $60.61 suggests a potential 34% upside from current levels.
Source: Seeking Alpha
Fair Value Assessment
Our analysis estimates Nutrien’s fair value at $57 per share, based on a combination of 14 valuation methods, including EV/EBITDA Multiples, Price-to-Book multiples, Earnings Power Value, P/E Multiples. This implies a potential 26% upside from the current price, aligning with Wall Street’s view that the stock is undervalued.
Options Market Sentiment
For Nutrien, the +37,846 netflow 30d moving sum indicates a moderate inflow of capital over the last 30 days, suggesting some buying interest. However, the “Mixed” prediction for September points to uncertainty and potential volatility with no clear market direction. By October, the forecast shifts to a “Bearish Trend,” signaling a likely downward movement in stock value, prompting investors to prepare for potential declines.
Source: Visual Sectors
Conclusion
Nutrien has delivered solid earnings and retains strong growth prospects in its potash segment. However, pressures in the agricultural sector, along with challenges in the Retail division, have led to cautious analyst sentiment.
Although the stock appears undervalued based on fair value assessments and analyst targets, the bearish trend forecasted in the options market suggests waiting until the next earnings release to gain better insight into the company’s ability to navigate these challenges. Therefore, we recommend holding off on buying for now.